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Paper: Average Lifetime of an Intelligent Civilization Estimated on its
Volume: 213, Bioastronomy '99: A New Era in Bioastronomy
Page: 437
Authors: Kompanichenko, Vladimir
Abstract: In the cycle of existence of all natural systems (possessing an excess of free energy with respect to the environment - stars, living organisms, social systems, etc.) 4 universal stages can be distinguished: growth. internal development, stationary state, ageing (Kompanichenko, Futures, 1994, 26/5). In the context of this approach, human civilization that originated 10000 years ago is going through the natural cycle of its development. The analogy between the two different-hierarchy active systems is drawn: a human ( constructed of 60 trillion autonomous living systems - cells) and the human community (consisting of 6 billion autonomous living systems - people). In the cycle of the existence of a human, each of the four stages accounts for roughly 25% of its lifespan: growth 0-18 years, internal development, reaching maturity 18-36 years, stationary state 36-54 years, ageing 54-72 years. The humankind is now almost approaching the limits of its growth. Consequently, it can correspond to the age of 16-17 years old person. Thus, we can assume that during 10000 years of its existence human civilization has passed about 25% of the cycle of development. There is 30000 years of normative existence ahead (middle estimation). Actual existence can oscillate between 300 years and 3 million years, depending on the reasonable, conscious approach of humankind to its future. According to the Drake equation, with normative estimation L=30000 years there should exist at least several thousand of intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy.
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