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Paper: The Lifetime of Technological Civilizations and their Impact on the Search Strategies
Volume: 420, Bioastronomy 2007: Molecules, Microbes and Extraterrestrial Life
Page: 393
Authors: Lemarchand, G. A.
Abstract: Several very long-term biological and ecological studies have shown that different species on Earth emerge, develop, and become extinct with similar evolutionary patterns. Assuming the Principle of Mediocrity, we can expect that the distribution of different technological galactic species will behave with similar evolutionary patterns to the terrestrial ones. Based on the behavior of different centennial societal indicators we estimate the minimum lifetime of our terrestrial civilization. With this value, we infer a minimum threshold for the galactic density of technological civilizations. We apply these results to analyze the probability of a random detection by existing state-of-the-art SETI programs.
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